A Nuclear Horse Trade for Germany?

Germany has been phasing out nuclear power since the Fukushima disaster in 2011, but some politicians and experts argue that the country needs nuclear weapons for deterrence and defense. While the official policy of the German government is still firmly against nuclear proliferation, the debate about the country's strategic autonomy and security challenges has intensified in recent years. One potential scenario that has been discussed is a "nuclear horse trade" with the United States, where Germany would host American nuclear weapons in exchange for a share of control over them.

The concept of nuclear sharing dates back to the Cold War, when the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) developed a strategy of "flexible response" to counter the Soviet Union's overwhelming conventional forces with a mix of nuclear and conventional weapons. As part of this strategy, the United States deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Europe, including Germany, to deter a possible Soviet invasion or escalation. These weapons were not under the direct control of the host countries, but rather under the custody of the US Air Force, which would release them to the NATO commander in case of war.

After the end of the Cold War, the number of US nuclear weapons in Europe was reduced and some countries, such as Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands, removed them from their territory. However, some NATO members, such as Italy, Turkey and especially Poland and the Baltic states, still see nuclear sharing as a vital element of their security and have called for the US to increase its nuclear presence in Europe. The Trump administration responded to these requests by modernizing the B61 bombs and deploying them in new bases, such as Romania and Poland, as well as upgrading the infrastructure of existing bases, such as Incirlik in Turkey and Büchel in Germany.

The Büchel air base, located in the Eifel region of western Germany, is currently the only site where US nuclear weapons are stored in the country. According to public estimates, around 20 B61 bombs, which can be delivered by German Tornado fighter-bombers, are kept there. The German government has repeatedly stated that it does not possess nuclear weapons, does not want them, and does not want to participate in nuclear sharing any further. However, some politicians and experts argue that this policy is unrealistic and risky in the face of new challenges such as Russian aggression, North Korean nuclear tests, and the uncertain commitment of the US to NATO under President Trump.

Proponents of a nuclear horse trade argue that Germany could gain more leverage over its nuclear posture by hosting American bombs and sharing the responsibility for their use or non-use. They also claim that this could strengthen the transatlantic bond and deter potential adversaries, while reducing the need for Germany to develop its own nuclear weapons or rely on the uncertain protection of US nuclear umbrella. However, opponents of nuclear sharing point out that it undermines the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and encourages other countries to pursue nuclear weapons as well. They also argue that the risks of accidents, theft, or terrorist attacks involving nuclear weapons are too high to justify any benefits of hosting them.

The debate about a nuclear horse trade for Germany is not only about military and strategic issues, but also about political and ethical questions. Germany has a special history and responsibility regarding nuclear weapons, as the only country that has used them in war and suffered their devastating effects. The German public is generally opposed to nuclear weapons and nuclear power, and any attempt to revive the nuclear debate could spark protests and political turmoil. Moreover, Germany is also committed to reducing carbon emissions and promoting renewable energy, which is incompatible with nuclear energy and weapons.

In conclusion, the idea of a nuclear horse trade for Germany is a controversial and complex issue that raises many questions and challenges. It is not clear whether such a deal would enhance or undermine Germany's security and autonomy, or whether it would contribute to or violate the global norm against nuclear proliferation. However, the fact that the debate is taking place shows that the strategic landscape of Europe is shifting and that old assumptions and alliances are being reexamined. Whether Germany will ultimately choose to ride the nuclear horse, or seek other ways to address its security challenges, remains to be seen.